The said revenue, together with funding from Ukraine’s external donors, including $6.5 billion from the International Monetary Fund and $1.6 billion from the European Union and the World Bank each, will allow refinancing most of the payments on external obligations, according to the NBU’s January 2019 Inflation Report.
The regulator believes that in 2019-2021, fiscal policy will be tighter than in 2018, and expects the consolidated budget to record a deficit of no more than 1.5% of GDP as external debt repayments reach peak levels.
According to the central bank, the ratio of Ukraine’s public debt to GDP dropped from 72% in 2017 to 61% in 2018.
The regulator predicts that the continued rapid nominal GDP growth, low exchange rate volatility, and continued primary surpluses in the consolidated budget (over 1% of GDP a year) amid large repayments will reduce public and publicly guaranteed debt to below 60% of GDP.
As UNIAN reported earlier, Ukraine is to pay foreign creditors about $179 billion, or $6.1 billion at the official rate of the National Bank, to repay and service state and government-guaranteed debt in 2019.
Ukraine’s state and government-guaranteed debt, estimated in U.S. dollars, grew by 2.6%, or by $2.02 billion, to $78.32 billion, in 2018. The debt in the hryvnia equivalent over the period under review rose by 1.3%, or by UAH 26.94 billion, to UAH 2.169 trillion ($80.5 billion, at the NBU current rate).
The IMF Executive Board approved a new 14-month Stand-By Arrangement for Ukraine worth $3.9 billion. Ukraine received the first $1.4 billion tranche under the new program on December 21, 2018.